Using AI to Forecast the Growth of Covid-19
With Covid-19 vaccinations underway, countries continue to log a record number of coronavirus cases and deaths.
“This increase is being driven by rapid change in a number of different countries – with the runaway pandemic in the United States really leading the pack,” explained Andrew Schroeder, the head of research and analysis at Direct Relief.
On Wednesday, the U.S. reported 274,000 new cases and recorded 3,656 additional deaths, according to data collected by John Hopkins University. With more than 17 million active cases, the United States has the highest number of per capita cases in the world. More than 300,000 Americans have died.
Globally, cases surpassed 74 million this week and deaths exceeded 1.6 million.
Direct Relief’s research and analysis team have been using Facebook-provided data, data from other sources, and AI to predict, visualize, and analyze the spread of Covid-19 in the United States. The model provides county-level predictions about the projected growth of Covid-19 and identifies which counties are most at risk. Using past predictions as a comparison, the average variance between actual cases versus model-based predictions is less than 1%.
The model predicts more than 4.8 million new cases nationwide by January 1, 2021.
In addition, the team is using data to track hospital capacity at the county level, including the number of staffed beds and critical care facilities in a particular community.
These insights are used by Direct Relief staff to guide allocation decisions about where resources are needed most, allowing the organization to provide targeted assistance. The model is also used being used by public health officials to determine how best to deploy resources, set policies, and communicate with the public on how to mitigate transmission of the virus.