×

News publications and other organizations are encouraged to reuse Direct Relief-published content for free under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 International), given the republisher complies with the requirements identified below.

When republishing:

  • Include a byline with the reporter’s name and Direct Relief in the following format: "Author Name, Direct Relief." If attribution in that format is not possible, include the following language at the top of the story: "This story was originally published by Direct Relief."
  • If publishing online, please link to the original URL of the story.
  • Maintain any tagline at the bottom of the story.
  • With Direct Relief's permission, news publications can make changes such as localizing the content for a particular area, using a different headline, or shortening story text. To confirm edits are acceptable, please check with Direct Relief by clicking this link.
  • If new content is added to the original story — for example, a comment from a local official — a note with language to the effect of the following must be included: "Additional reporting by [reporter and organization]."
  • If republished stories are shared on social media, Direct Relief appreciates being tagged in the posts:
    • Twitter (@DirectRelief)
    • Facebook (@DirectRelief)
    • Instagram (@DirectRelief)

Republishing Images:

Unless stated otherwise, images shot by Direct Relief may be republished for non-commercial purposes with proper attribution, given the republisher complies with the requirements identified below.

  • Maintain correct caption information.
  • Credit the photographer and Direct Relief in the caption. For example: "First and Last Name / Direct Relief."
  • Do not digitally alter images.

Direct Relief often contracts with freelance photographers who usually, but not always, allow their work to be published by Direct Relief’s media partners. Contact Direct Relief for permission to use images in which Direct Relief is not credited in the caption by clicking here.

Other Requirements:

  • Do not state or imply that donations to any third-party organization support Direct Relief's work.
  • Republishers may not sell Direct Relief's content.
  • Direct Relief's work is prohibited from populating web pages designed to improve rankings on search engines or solely to gain revenue from network-based advertisements.
  • Advance permission is required to translate Direct Relief's stories into a language different from the original language of publication. To inquire, contact us here.
  • If Direct Relief requests a change to or removal of republished Direct Relief content from a site or on-air, the republisher must comply.

For any additional questions about republishing Direct Relief content, please email the team here.

Using AI to Forecast the Growth of Covid-19

Model predicts more than 4.8 million new cases nationwide by January 1, 2021.

News

Covid-19

The Facebook AI Research Model predicts 4.87 million new cases nationwide by Jan. 1, 2021.

With Covid-19 vaccinations underway, countries continue to log a record number of coronavirus cases and deaths.

“This increase is being driven by rapid change in a number of different countries – with the runaway pandemic in the United States really leading the pack,” explained Andrew Schroeder, the head of research and analysis at Direct Relief.

On Wednesday, the U.S. reported 274,000 new cases and recorded 3,656 additional deaths, according to data collected by John Hopkins University.  With more than 17 million active cases, the United States has the highest number of per capita cases in the world. More than 300,000 Americans have died.

Globally, cases surpassed 74 million this week and deaths exceeded 1.6 million.

Direct Relief’s research and analysis team have been using Facebook-provided data, data from other sources, and AI to predict, visualize, and analyze the spread of Covid-19 in the United States. The model provides county-level predictions about the projected growth of Covid-19 and identifies which counties are most at risk. Using past predictions as a comparison, the average variance between actual cases versus model-based predictions is less than 1%.

The model predicts more than 4.8 million new cases nationwide by January 1, 2021.

In addition, the team is using data to track hospital capacity at the county level, including the number of staffed beds and critical care facilities in a particular community.

These insights are used by Direct Relief staff to guide allocation decisions about where resources are needed most, allowing the organization to provide targeted assistance. The model is also used being used by public health officials to determine how best to deploy resources, set policies, and communicate with the public on how to mitigate transmission of the virus.

U.S. Counties at Highest Risk

Based on current trends, U.S. counties most at risk include Los Angeles (CA), Cook (IL), Maricopa (AZ), Miami-Dade (FL), and San Bernardino (CA). “Really almost all of SoCal is in a very bad position, with forecast growth at some of the highest rates nationally in Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange, and San Diego,” said Schroeder. “Collectively, this may be the single greatest area of concern nationwide.”

California is expected to see an increase of nearly 700,000 cases by Jan. 1, 2021, according to the Facebook AI Research Mode.

Schroeder also flagged rural communities as areas of concern due to their high growth rates relative to population and lack of large-scale hospital resources. For example, in Sevier County, Tennessee, which has a population of 90,000, cases are expected to increase 35% over the next three weeks. The county has one hospital with 58 staffed beds and 8 staffed ICU beds, both of which are near or at capacity. “Bed occupancy at that hospital is averaging about 85% with 100% ICU utilization. About half of those totals are all Covid-19 patients,” noted Schroeder.

Sevier County, Tennessee is predicted to see a 35% increase in cases over the next three weeks.

Tennessee and Ohio have the highest case rates per capita in the country, with more than 1,000 cases per million. If either of these states were a country, they would be leading the world in case growth relative to population size. “Each one is growing rapidly – almost straight line upwards – with no sign of a peak in sight,” said Schroeder.

Ohio has one of the highest case growth rates relative to population in the country.

Direct Relief will continue to monitor the spread of Covid-19 and update predictions as data becomes available. More information on Direct Relief’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic can be found here.

Giving is Good Medicine

You don't have to donate. That's why it's so extraordinary if you do.